Undoubtedly, such bold action will result in South Korea Phone Number List the immediate escalation of tensions, but it will also force China to recalculate the usefulness of buttressing North Korea. If China wants stability on its border a costly war, South Korea Phone Number List which will possibly involve U.S. and even Japanese soldier at the Yalu River border would not be beneficial to its economic growth. The Chinese government has not published South Korea Phone Number List official figures on "mass incidents", a CC (Chinese Communist Party) term for riots; demonstrations; and protests since 2004. In that year 74,000 incidents were recorded, a 28% change over the previous year.
Foreign analysts, drawing on Chinese sources, estimated the 2005 figure to have been 80,000-85,000 (Elide 2006). Considering the trend line, starting from 1993, there is no reason to think the number of incidents has not increased at the historic average of 20% a year. Most of these incidents are due to corruption and the lack of economic opportunity South Korea Phone Number List in rural areas, where most Chinese still live. It is not in China's interest to sacrifice its own internal stability, which is a greater threat to CC power South Korea Phone Number List than losing North Korea as a buffer zone.
Still, before China could stop aiding North Korea, because there is a possibility of state collapse before Kim Jon-IL submits to external pressure, the U.S. and Japan must guarantee China (and South Korea Phone Number List) that they will deal with the resulting refugee situation. The U.S. must also promise China not to move U.S. troops above the 38th South Korea Phone Number List parallel (Korean Demilitarized Zone), even if Korea is unified.Calling Mr. Kim's bluff and pressuring China is a risky proposition. North Korea could decimate Seoul and the estimated 1.2 million troops on the border will likely overrun U.S. and South Korea Phone Number List resistance. Japan is also a likely target of North Korean missile attacks.